Track record · closed signal

Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) — closed signal from May 2, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on July 31, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

LLY price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$963.33 Published $1,107.83 Target $1,148.84 Window close $1,249.45 Peak
$925.00 – $965.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$963.33Published — price the day we called it
$1,107.83Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$1,249.45Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$1,148.84Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 26 days.

Peak price
$1,249.45
peak on July 7, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+29.7%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$1,148.84
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
26
Window
May 2, 2026 – July 31, 2026

The thesis — published May 2, 2026

Predicted growth
+15%
over the measurement window
Target price
$1,107.83
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$925.00 – $965.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$963.33
published May 2, 2026
Confidence
79%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Eli Lilly combines strong medical products with a clear growth story driven by GLP-1 drugs and an early-stage oral weight-loss medicine. Recent results and pricing comments look solid, but the share price has already moved up a lot. Short-term gains are likelier if the stock cools and resumes its trend; leverage and crowded ownership limit upside.

Primary drivers

  • Growing demand for GLP-1 drugs that boost sales over time
  • Early momentum for an oral weight-loss prescription supports growth
  • Consistent quarterly wins show the company can deliver results
  • Healthcare mix helps smooth cycles while still allowing growth

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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