Track record · closed signal

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from May 1, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on July 30, 2026 — -2.3% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

NVDA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$199.55 Published $235.47 Target $195.04 Window close $236.54 Peak
$193.00 – $202.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$199.55Published — price the day we called it
$235.47Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$236.54Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$195.04Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 13 days.

At window close
-2.3%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+18.5%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+3.2%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$195.04
last close inside the window, ended July 30, 2026
Peak price
$236.54
peak on May 14, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
13

The thesis — published May 1, 2026

Predicted growth
+18%
over the measurement window
Target price
$235.47
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$193.00 – $202.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$199.55
published May 1, 2026
Confidence
78%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

NVIDIA is a leading supplier of the computing gear that powers AI, and demand for AI chips and systems is still strong. The company has lots of cash to keep investing, and recent price action supports a near-term upside case. Volatility, insider selling, and sensitivity to AI spending headlines make the setup less certain.

Primary drivers

  • Strong demand for AI processors and related systems
  • Large cash reserves enable continued platform investment
  • Industry news supports continued demand for AI infrastructure
  • High share-price swings and sensitivity to AI spending raise dip risk

How it played out

NVDA: target reached in 13 days

Lyra published a short-term upside thesis at $199.55, with 18% expected growth and a $235.47 target. The thesis pointed to strong demand for artificial intelligence processors and systems, large cash reserves for continued investment, supportive industry news, and recent price action. It also identified volatility, insider selling, and sensitivity to spending headlines as risks.

The shares reached the target in 13 days. They peaked at $236.54 on May 14, a gain of 18.5%, then ended the window at $195.04. The thesis played out inside the window, though the gain did not hold through the end.

What happened during the window

On May 20, 2026, NVIDIA reported first-quarter revenue of $81.6 billion, up 85% from a year earlier, and data center revenue of $75.2 billion, up 92%.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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