Track record · closed signal

Valley National Bancorp (VLY) — closed signal from May 1, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on July 30, 2026 — +6% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

VLY price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$12.90 – $13.49Entry zone — fair-value band

$13.51Published — price the day we called it

$14.89Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$15.20Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$14.32Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 67 days.

At window close

+6%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+12.5%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+3.2%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$14.32

last close inside the window, ended July 30, 2026

Peak price

$15.20

peak on July 16, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published May 1, 2026

Predicted growth

+11%

over the measurement window

Target price

$14.89

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$12.90 – $13.49

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$13.51

published May 1, 2026

Confidence

77%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Valley National looks like a fairly priced regional bank showing steady improvement: interest income, deposits, and earnings came in better recently, and insiders have been buying stock. The setup is constructive but not aggressive because trading volume is still low and regional bank lending or funding problems could undo gains within a few months.

Primary drivers

Interest income and deposits improved in recent results
Insider buying increases confidence in management
Valuation looks fair versus current growth and profits
Main risk is regional-bank lending and funding stress

How it played out

VLY: target reached in 67 days

Lyra published an 11% growth thesis from a price of $13.51. The thesis pointed to improved interest income and deposits, insider buying, and a valuation that looked fair against growth and profits. It also identified regional bank lending and funding stress as the main risk.

The shares reached the $14.89 target in 67 days. They peaked at $15.20 on July 16, a 12.5% gain, before ending the window at $14.32. The peak cleared the target, although the closing price was below it. The published thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On May 14, 2026, Valley announced the full redemption of $300 million in subordinated notes. On July 23, 2026, it reported second-quarter net income of $170.9 million, or $0.29 per diluted share.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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