Track record · closed signal

Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) — closed signal from May 1, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on July 30, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

LLY price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$973.36 Published $1,119.36 Target $1,154.97 Window close $1,249.45 Peak
$910.00 – $965.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$973.36Published — price the day we called it
$1,119.36Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$1,249.45Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$1,154.97Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 27 days.

Peak price
$1,249.45
peak on July 7, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+28.4%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$1,154.97
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
27
Window
May 1, 2026 – July 30, 2026

The thesis — published May 1, 2026

Predicted growth
+15%
over the measurement window
Target price
$1,119.36
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$910.00 – $965.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$973.36
published May 1, 2026
Confidence
76%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Eli Lilly is seeing very strong sales in obesity, diabetes, and specialty medicines, and the company raised its outlook. That makes the long-term story strong. However, the stock rose fast and now prices in high expectations, so short-term risk is elevated and small disappointments could hurt performance.

Primary drivers

  • Heavy demand for obesity and diabetes treatments driving sales growth
  • Higher company guidance increases confidence in near-term results
  • Healthcare exposure provides a different growth source than AI-focused names
  • High valuation and recent strong gains make careful timing important

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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