Track record · closed signal

Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) — closed signal from May 1, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on July 30, 2026 — +18.7% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

LLY price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$910.00 – $965.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$973.36Published — price the day we called it

$1,119.36Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$1,249.45Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$1,154.97Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 27 days.

At window close

+18.7%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+28.4%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+3.2%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$1,154.97

last close inside the window, ended July 30, 2026

Peak price

$1,249.45

peak on July 7, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published May 1, 2026

Predicted growth

+15%

over the measurement window

Target price

$1,119.36

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$910.00 – $965.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$973.36

published May 1, 2026

Confidence

76%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Eli Lilly is seeing very strong sales in obesity, diabetes, and specialty medicines, and the company raised its outlook. That makes the long-term story strong. However, the stock rose fast and now prices in high expectations, so short-term risk is elevated and small disappointments could hurt performance.

Primary drivers

Heavy demand for obesity and diabetes treatments driving sales growth
Higher company guidance increases confidence in near-term results
Healthcare exposure provides a different growth source than AI-focused names
High valuation and recent strong gains make careful timing important

How it played out

LLY: target reached in 27 days

Lyra published LLY at $973.36 with expected growth of 15% and a target of $1,119.36. The thesis pointed to heavy demand for obesity and diabetes treatments, higher company guidance, healthcare growth outside artificial intelligence-focused names, and the risks posed by a high valuation and recent gains.

The stock reached the target in 27 days. It peaked at $1,249.45 on July 7, a gain of 28.4%, then ended the window at $1,154.97 on July 30. The closing price remained above the target. The thesis played out and exceeded its stated target.

What happened during the window

On May 28, Lilly announced that it would present new Phase 3 results for its diabetes and obesity treatments at scientific sessions held June 5 through June 8.

Lilly to present new data on Foundayo, Mounjaro and retatrutide

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All LLY signals