Track record · closed signal

GE Vernova LLC (GEV) — closed signal from May 1, 2026

Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on July 30, 2026 — -8.5% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

GEV price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$1,073.29 Published $1,202.08 Target $981.98 Window close $1,195.94 Peak
$1,020.00 – $1,080.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$1,073.29Published — price the day we called it
$1,202.08Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$1,195.94Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$981.98Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Near target

Came within reach: 95% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.

At window close
-8.5%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+11.4%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+3.2%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$981.98
last close inside the window, ended July 30, 2026
Peak price
$1,195.94
peak on July 6, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published May 1, 2026

Predicted growth
+12%
over the measurement window
Target price
$1,202.08
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$1,020.00 – $1,080.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$1,073.29
published May 1, 2026
Confidence
76%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

GE Vernova is tied to big, long-term trends: updating electrical grids, growing power needs, and the shift to cleaner energy. Recent results showed better profits, revenue growth, and stronger cash flow, plus a sizable Egypt contract that boosts backlog. Price is relatively high and trading is thin, so near-term certainty is limited though the recent pullback looks like a constructive setup.

Primary drivers

  • Modernizing grids and rising power demand support long-term sales
  • Recent report showed stronger profit and improved cash flow
  • Egypt contract increases international work and visible backlog
  • High valuation and light trading make near-term gains less certain

How it played out

GEV: the thesis came close, then reversed

Lyra published a short-term thesis for 12% growth from 1073.29. The thesis pointed to grid modernization, rising power demand, cleaner energy, stronger profit and cash flow, and an Egypt contract that added backlog. It also noted the high valuation and light trading as risks to near-term gains.

GEV rose to 1195.94 on July 6, a peak gain of 11.4%, but never reached the 1202.08 target. It ended the window at 981.98 on July 30. The thesis partially played out because the price came close to the expected gain, then reversed and finished below the publication price.

What happened during the window

On July 22, 2026, GE Vernova reported second-quarter revenue of $11.1 billion and raised its 2026 revenue and free cash flow guidance.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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