Track record · closed signal

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from April 30, 2026

Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on July 29, 2026 — -5.2% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

NVDA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$200.50 Published $244.61 Target $190.01 Window close $236.54 Peak
$190.00 – $205.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$200.50Published — price the day we called it
$244.61Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$236.54Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$190.01Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Near target

Came within reach: 82% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.

At window close
-5.2%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+18%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+1.8%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$190.01
last close inside the window, ended July 29, 2026
Peak price
$236.54
peak on May 14, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published April 30, 2026

Predicted growth
+22%
over the measurement window
Target price
$244.61
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$190.00 – $205.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$200.50
published April 30, 2026
Confidence
76%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

NVIDIA stands out because demand for its AI chips is strong, profit margins are healthy, the company has ample cash, and it keeps delivering strong earnings. Cloud demand from big tech supports orders, but faster spending discipline at hyperscalers and competition on custom chips make the stock more volatile and not risk-free.

Primary drivers

  • Big cloud providers are buying more AI chips, keeping demand high
  • Earnings reports show visible orders but spending discipline raises timing risk
  • Healthy profit margins and cash on the balance sheet help withstand swings
  • Price action shows more active buying than many large peers, indicating interest

How it played out

NVDA: the 22% growth thesis fell short

Lyra published NVDA at $200.50 with expected growth of 22% and a $244.61 target. The thesis pointed to demand for artificial intelligence chips from large cloud providers, visible orders, healthy profit margins, ample cash, and active buying. It also noted spending discipline and competition as risks.

NVDA rose to a peak of $236.54 on May 14, a gain of 18%. It stayed below the target throughout the window. By July 29, it had fallen to $190.01. The expected growth did not arrive, though the early rise moved in the thesis's direction. The thesis partially played out, then reversed before the window ended.

What happened during the window

On May 20, NVIDIA reported first-quarter revenue of $81.6 billion, up 85% from a year earlier, and Data Center revenue of $75.2 billion, up 92%.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All NVDA signals