Track record · closed signal

Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HMY) — closed signal from April 30, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on July 29, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

HMY price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$15.64 Published $18.77 Target $15.53 Window close $18.64 Peak
$15.00 – $15.80Entry zone — fair-value band
$15.64Published — price the day we called it
$18.77Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$18.64Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$15.53Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Hit or exceeded the predicted growth inside the window.

Peak price
$18.64
peak on May 29, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+19.2%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$15.53
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
April 30, 2026 – July 29, 2026

The thesis — published April 30, 2026

Predicted growth
+20%
over the measurement window
Target price
$18.77
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$15.00 – $15.80
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$15.64
published April 30, 2026
Confidence
71%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Harmony Gold gives exposure to gold with a cheaper valuation than many peers and a recent bank upgrade plus upbeat talk about earnings. The share price has fallen into a beaten-down area, which could allow a bounce if gold prices stay steady. Risks from operations in South Africa, currency swings, and gold price shifts keep conviction moderate.

Primary drivers

  • Upgrade brought renewed investor attention
  • Gold exposure helps when markets are volatile
  • Relatively cheaper valuation than many peers
  • Recent pullback could allow a rebound if bullion holds firm

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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