Track record · closed signal

Valley National Bancorp (VLY) — closed signal from April 30, 2026

Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on July 29, 2026 — +7.6% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

VLY price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$13.27 Published $15.28 Target $14.28 Window close $15.20 Peak
$12.61 – $13.30Entry zone — fair-value band
$13.27Published — price the day we called it
$15.28Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$15.20Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$14.28Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Near target

Came within reach: 91% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.

At window close
+7.6%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+14.5%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+1.8%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$14.28
last close inside the window, ended July 29, 2026
Peak price
$15.20
peak on July 16, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published April 30, 2026

Predicted growth
+16%
over the measurement window
Target price
$15.28
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$12.61 – $13.30
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$13.27
published April 30, 2026
Confidence
79%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Valley National looks like a cleaner example of a regional bank. Recent quarterly results showed stronger interest income, growing core deposits, and earnings that beat expectations. The stock pulled back but kept its positive posture, and valuation suggests some upside. Insider buying helps the case. Near-term risks are commercial real estate, rising funding costs, and low trading volume.

Primary drivers

  • Earnings beat driven by higher interest income
  • Growing core deposits improve funding stability
  • Valuation is modest and could re-rate higher
  • Insider buying signals internal confidence in the stock

How it played out

VLY: rose 14.5%, but missed the target

Lyra published VLY at $13.27 with expected growth of 16% and a $15.28 target. The thesis pointed to an earnings beat tied to higher interest income, growing core deposits, modest valuation, and insider buying. It also identified commercial real estate, funding costs, and low trading volume as risks.

The stock reached a peak of $15.20 on July 16, a gain of 14.5%. It stayed below the target throughout the window, then ended at $14.28 on July 29. The thesis partially played out because the price rose substantially, but the published target was never reached.

What happened during the window

On July 23, 2026, Valley National Bancorp reported second-quarter net income of $170.9 million, or $0.29 per diluted common share.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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