Track record · closed signal

Valley National Bancorp (VLY) — closed signal from April 29, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on July 28, 2026 — +8.6% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

VLY price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$13.34 Published $14.83 Target $14.49 Window close $15.20 Peak
$12.81 – $13.40Entry zone — fair-value band
$13.34Published — price the day we called it
$14.83Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$15.20Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$14.49Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 69 days.

At window close
+8.6%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+13.9%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+4.4%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$14.49
last close inside the window, ended July 28, 2026
Peak price
$15.20
peak on July 16, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
69

The thesis — published April 29, 2026

Predicted growth
+12%
over the measurement window
Target price
$14.83
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$12.81 – $13.40
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$13.34
published April 29, 2026
Confidence
69%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Valley National reported better-than-expected quarterly results driven by higher interest income, stronger fees, and growth in core deposits. The stock looks reasonably valued and insiders have shown supportive behavior, and the share price sits near a support area. Trading volume is light and the bank is sensitive to interest-rate moves, so confidence is cautious. Credit quality will be a key watch item.

Primary drivers

  • Quarterly results improved because interest income rose
  • Growth in core deposits helps keep funding steady
  • Insider buying or alignment increases confidence
  • Valuation appears reasonable for a bank rebound

How it played out

VLY: target reached in 69 days

Lyra published VLY at $13.34 with an expected 12% rise toward $14.83. The thesis pointed to higher interest income, stronger fees, growth in core deposits, insider alignment, and reasonable valuation. It also flagged light trading volume, sensitivity to interest-rate moves, and credit quality as risks.

The stock reached the target in 69 days. It peaked at $15.20 on July 16, a gain of 13.9%. By July 28, it had fallen back to $14.49, below the target but above the publication price. The thesis played out within the measurement window.

What happened during the window

On July 23, 2026, Valley reported second-quarter net income of $170.9 million, or $0.29 per diluted common share.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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