Track record · closed signal

Frontline Ltd (FRO) — closed signal from April 29, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on July 28, 2026 — +12.9% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

FRO price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$34.35 Published $36.21 Target $38.78 Window close $43.10 Peak
$31.68 – $33.52Entry zone — fair-value band
$34.35Published — price the day we called it
$36.21Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$43.10Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$38.78Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 9 days.

At window close
+12.9%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+25.5%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+4.4%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$38.78
last close inside the window, ended July 28, 2026
Peak price
$43.10
peak on June 24, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
9

The thesis — published April 29, 2026

Predicted growth
+10%
over the measurement window
Target price
$36.21
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$31.68 – $33.52
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$34.35
published April 29, 2026
Confidence
62%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Frontline could profit if tanker shipping rates rise because of disruptions around Hormuz, and its valuation still appears below fair value. Recent growth readings look good and the price sits near a short-term support level. Major risks: uneven earnings, meaningful debt, and the price momentum hasn't yet backed up the geopolitical story.

Primary drivers

  • Higher tanker rates if Hormuz-related disruption cuts supply
  • Market value still looks below estimated fair value
  • Shipping business has solid fundamentals for the cycle
  • Price is near recent short-term support, limiting downside

How it played out

FRO: target reached in 9 days

Lyra published FRO at $34.35 with expected growth of 10% and a $36.21 target. The thesis pointed to higher tanker rates if Hormuz-related disruption cut supply, a market value below estimated fair value, solid shipping fundamentals, and the price sitting near recent short-term support.

The target was reached in 9 days. FRO later peaked at $43.10 on June 24, a gain of 25.5% inside the window, and ended at $38.78. That finish remained above the target. The published thesis played out on price, and the stock exceeded the expected gain.

What happened during the window

On May 22, 2026, Frontline reported first-quarter profit of $559.1 million and declared a cash dividend of $1.55 per share. It also said it had entered into two one-year charters for two new vessels at $110,000 per day.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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