Track record · closed signal

Element Solutions Inc (ESI) — closed signal from April 29, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on July 28, 2026 — -14.2% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

ESI price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$39.00 – $42.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$42.54Published — price the day we called it

$45.52Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$49.25Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$36.50Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 47 days.

At window close

-14.2%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+15.8%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+4.4%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$36.50

last close inside the window, ended July 28, 2026

Peak price

$49.25

peak on June 22, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published April 29, 2026

Predicted growth

+7%

over the measurement window

Target price

$45.52

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$39.00 – $42.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$42.54

published April 29, 2026

Confidence

60%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Q1 showed record results, sales more than doubled compared to last year, and the company raised full-year forecasts. Electronics and AI-related demand is helping volumes. The stock already reflects much of the good news, analyst fair value is below the market price, and insiders sound cautious. A price pullback would lower valuation risk.

Primary drivers

Record Q1 shows stronger electronics demand
Raised guidance gives clearer earnings outlook
AI-related markets are supporting chemical volumes
Setup is sensitive to pullbacks, so valuation is important

How it played out

ESI: target reached in 47 days

Lyra published ESI at $42.54 with expected growth of 7% and a target of $45.52. The thesis pointed to record first-quarter results, stronger electronics demand, raised guidance and demand tied to artificial intelligence markets. It also warned that valuation made the setup sensitive to pullbacks.

The stock reached the target in 47 days. It peaked at $49.25 on June 22, a gain of 15.8%. By the window's end, it had fallen to $36.50. The published upside thesis played out within the window, but the gain did not hold.

What happened during the window

On July 6, 2026, Solstice Advanced Materials announced an agreement to acquire Element Solutions. On July 27, Element Solutions reported second-quarter net sales of $978 million and raised its full-year guidance.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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