Track record · closed signal

T-Mobile US Inc (TMUS) — closed signal from April 29, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on July 28, 2026 — -6.9% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

TMUS price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$195.90 Published $224.07 Target $182.39 Window close $199.55 Peak
$187.95 – $195.87Entry zone — fair-value band
$195.90Published — price the day we called it
$224.07Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$199.55Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$182.39Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 13% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
-6.9%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+1.9%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+4.4%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$182.39
last close inside the window, ended July 28, 2026
Peak price
$199.55
peak on April 29, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published April 29, 2026

Predicted growth
+15%
over the measurement window
Target price
$224.07
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$187.95 – $195.87
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$195.90
published April 29, 2026
Confidence
66%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

T-Mobile may grow beyond phones because new fiber partnerships aim to sell home internet to more households. The company recently reported solid results and the stock hasn't been too volatile, which supports the setup. High debt levels, insider hesitation, and negative price trend make this a stabilization trade rather than a clear confirmed move.

Primary drivers

  • Fiber partnerships widen the home internet opportunity
  • Recent results show the business is executing
  • Stock moves less than peers in choppy markets
  • Strong target support offers upside optionality

How it played out

TMUS: the 15% growth thesis missed its target

On April 29, Lyra expected TMUS to rise 15% from a publication price of $195.90. The thesis pointed to fiber partnerships, recent business results, lower volatility than peers, and target support. It also noted high debt, insider hesitation, and a negative price trend.

TMUS peaked at $199.55 on April 29, a gain of 1.9%. It never reached the $224.07 target. By July 28, the stock had fallen to $182.39, below both the publication price and the entry zone. The thesis did not play out within the window.

What happened during the window

On July 23, T-Mobile reported second-quarter results. Postpaid revenue per account grew 2% from a year earlier, while postpaid net account additions fell 13%.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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