Track record · closed signal

Old National Bancorp (ONB) — closed signal from April 28, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on July 27, 2026 — +11.5% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

ONB price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$22.64 – $23.52Entry zone — fair-value band

$23.68Published — price the day we called it

$26.20Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$27.32Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$26.41Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 69 days.

At window close

+11.5%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+15.4%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+4.1%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$26.41

last close inside the window, ended July 27, 2026

Peak price

$27.32

peak on July 16, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published April 28, 2026

Predicted growth

+12%

over the measurement window

Target price

$26.20

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$22.64 – $23.52

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$23.68

published April 28, 2026

Confidence

71%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Old National is a regional bank showing steady improvement: reported adjusted profits above expectations, lending is growing, and operations are becoming more efficient. The stock looks reasonably valued for the recent progress, and price action is not weak, though trading volume is low. Credit risks and limited outside support keep confidence moderate, but near-term setup is plausible within a diversified bank mix.

Primary drivers

Earnings surprised higher and loans are growing
Cost improvements are boosting profitability
Price seems fair given recent performance
Price action is constructive but trading volume is light

How it played out

ONB: target reached in 69 days

Lyra published a short-term thesis for 12% growth from $23.68. The thesis pointed to better-than-expected adjusted profits, loan growth, improved cost efficiency, a fair valuation, and constructive price action despite light trading volume. Credit risk and limited outside support kept confidence moderate.

ONB reached the $26.20 target in 69 days. It peaked at $27.32 on July 16, a 15.4% gain, and ended the window at $26.41. The peak was above the target, and the closing price remained above it. The published thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On July 22, 2026, Old National reported second-quarter net income applicable to common shares of $249.4 million and diluted earnings per share of $0.65. The company also announced an expanded executive leadership structure.

Old National Bancorp Reports Record Second Quarter 2026 Results; Announces Enhanced Executive Leadership Structure

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All ONB signals