Track record · closed signal

Valley National Bancorp (VLY) — closed signal from April 28, 2026

Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on July 27, 2026 — +6.1% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

VLY price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$13.52 Published $15.30 Target $14.35 Window close $15.20 Peak
$12.90 – $13.49Entry zone — fair-value band
$13.52Published — price the day we called it
$15.30Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$15.20Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$14.35Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Near target

Came within reach: 89% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.

At window close
+6.1%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+12.4%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+4.1%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$14.35
last close inside the window, ended July 27, 2026
Peak price
$15.20
peak on July 16, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published April 28, 2026

Predicted growth
+14%
over the measurement window
Target price
$15.30
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$12.90 – $13.49
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$13.52
published April 28, 2026
Confidence
80%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Valley stands out as a straightforward regional bank. Recent results showed stronger sales and adjusted profits than expected, core deposits grew, and the bank is investing in technology to run more efficiently. Insider buying adds a vote of confidence. Momentum is positive but trading volume is light, so shorter-term strength looks best on measured pullbacks.

Primary drivers

  • Earnings beat with growing core deposits supports stability
  • Tech investment should lower costs and improve efficiency
  • Insider buying signals internal confidence in the recovery
  • Positive sector momentum but trading volume is light, so timing risk

How it played out

VLY: the thesis partially played out

Lyra published VLY at $13.52 with expected growth of 14% and a $15.30 target. The thesis pointed to an earnings beat, growing core deposits, technology investment, insider buying, and positive sector momentum. It also noted light trading volume and timing risk.

The price rose to a $15.20 peak on July 16, a gain of 12.4%. It stayed below the $15.30 target throughout the window. VLY ended at $14.35 on July 27, above the publication price but below its peak. The thesis partially played out.

What happened during the window

On July 23, 2026, Valley reported second-quarter net income of $170.9 million, or $0.29 per diluted common share. It also reported total deposits of $54.1 billion at June 30, 2026.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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