Track record · closed signal

Valley National Bancorp (VLY) — closed signal from April 27, 2026

Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on July 26, 2026 — +6.6% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

VLY price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$13.46 Published $15.23 Target $14.34 Window close $15.20 Peak
$12.81 – $13.49Entry zone — fair-value band
$13.46Published — price the day we called it
$15.23Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$15.20Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$14.34Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Near target

Came within reach: 92% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.

At window close
+6.6%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+12.9%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+3.6%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$14.34
last close inside the window, ended July 26, 2026
Peak price
$15.20
peak on July 16, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published April 27, 2026

Predicted growth
+14%
over the measurement window
Target price
$15.23
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$12.81 – $13.49
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$13.46
published April 27, 2026
Confidence
82%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Valley National looks like the healthiest regional bank in its peer group. Recent reports show rising interest income, higher fees, stable customer deposits and better cost efficiency. Profit delivery, solid liquidity and insider buying add support. Main danger is loans and commercial real estate exposure, but recent price action feels reasonable, not overstretched.

Primary drivers

  • Recent results showed higher interest income, fees and deposit growth
  • Spending on technology is lowering operating costs over time
  • Insider buying and ample liquidity ease balance-sheet concerns
  • Price action is positive without appearing overly extended

How it played out

VLY: the target was narrowly missed

Lyra published a 14% growth thesis at $13.46, with a $15.23 target. The thesis pointed to higher interest income, fees and deposits, lower operating costs over time, insider buying, ample liquidity and positive price action. It also identified loan and commercial real estate exposure as the main risk.

VLY rose to $15.20 on July 16, a peak gain of 12.9%. It never reached the $15.23 target. The stock ended the window at $14.34, above the publication price but below its peak. The thesis partially played out.

What happened during the window

On July 23, 2026, Valley National Bancorp reported second-quarter net income of $170.9 million, or $0.29 per diluted common share. It also reported total deposits of $54.1 billion at June 30, 2026.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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