Track record · closed signal

Capital One Financial Corporation (COF) — closed signal from July 29, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 27, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

COF price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$212.79 Published $238.89 Target $222.64 Window close $229.63 Peak
$203.33 – $213.20Entry zone — fair-value band
$212.79Published — price the day we called it
$238.89Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$229.63Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$222.64Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 61% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$229.63
peak on September 15, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+7.9%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$222.64
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
July 29, 2025 – October 27, 2025

The thesis — published July 29, 2025

Predicted growth
+13%
over the measurement window
Target price
$238.89
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$203.33 – $213.20
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$212.79
published July 29, 2025
Confidence
66%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Shares fell after the company set aside extra cash for possible loan losses, pushing the price close to a long-running floor near 206 dollars. Yet investor mood is still strong because Capital One plans to buy Discover, a move that could turn the pair into a major one-stop payments player. Clearer banking rules are due soon, and more deal news could spark moves. A rebound to 245 dollars within about three months would erase half the recent drop.

Primary drivers

  • Buying Discover could add size and new fees, making earnings less tied to loans.
  • Recent sharp drop signals sellers may be tired, giving the price room to rebound.
  • Extra loan reserves seem like a one-time hit; overall loan quality still solid.
  • Clearer Basel III rules this quarter may remove worries about future regulations.

How it played out

COF: rebound fell short of the target

Lyra published COF at 212.79 on 2025-07-29 with 13% expected growth. The thesis pointed to the planned Discover purchase, a recent sharp drop, extra loan reserves that seemed like a one-time hit, and possible clarity on Basel III rules during the quarter.

Inside the window, COF rose to 229.63 on 2025-09-15, a 7.9% peak gain. It stayed below the 238.89 target and ended at 222.64 on 2025-10-27. The thesis partly played out: the stock rebounded, but it never reached the published target.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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