Track record · closed signal

SouthState Corporation (SSB) — closed signal from April 27, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on July 26, 2026 — +7.7% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

SSB price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$98.44 Published $113.21 Target $106.00 Window close $107.20 Peak
$94.00 – $99.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$98.44Published — price the day we called it
$113.21Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$107.20Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$106.00Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 59% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
+7.7%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+8.9%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+3.6%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$106.00
last close inside the window, ended July 26, 2026
Peak price
$107.20
peak on July 24, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published April 27, 2026

Predicted growth
+15%
over the measurement window
Target price
$113.21
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$94.00 – $99.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$98.44
published April 27, 2026
Confidence
77%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

SouthState looks like a regional bank that is recovering: loans grew well, the company bought back shares and beat earnings expectations. Its stock price seems fairly valued and it has more liquidity than many peers. However, profits are squeezed by higher funding costs and tighter margins, so the outlook depends on deposit trends stabilizing next quarter.

Primary drivers

  • Quarter showed clear loan growth even though some revenue items were mixed
  • Share buybacks and strong liquidity support the bank's balance sheet
  • Stock price looks reasonable for a regional bank in recovery
  • Near-term risk comes from higher funding costs and squeezed margins

How it played out

SSB: the thesis partially played out

Lyra published SSB at $98.44 on April 27, 2026, with 15% expected growth. The thesis pointed to loan growth, share buybacks, strong liquidity, and a reasonable valuation for a regional bank in recovery. It also identified higher funding costs, squeezed margins, and deposit trends as near-term risks.

Inside the window, SSB rose to a peak of $107.20 on July 24, an 8.9% gain. That stayed below the $113.21 target, so the target was never reached. The stock ended the window at $106. The thesis partially played out because the price rose, but the published growth expectation was not met.

What happened during the window

On July 23, 2026, SouthState reported second-quarter results and said its net interest margin was stable and deposit costs were unchanged. It also declared an increase in its quarterly cash dividend.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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