Kohl’s Corporation (KSS) — closed signal from July 29, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 27, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 50 days.
The thesis — published July 29, 2025
Kohl's stock sells for only one-fifth of yearly sales and even less than the value of its buildings and land, so it already looks cheap. Investor mood is strong and more people are buying as the number of shares bet against the company falls. A recent cut in rating by JPMorgan pushed the price down near $12.60, giving a possible bargain. Property value plus well-managed stock levels before the back-to-school rush could spark a repeat of past 40% pops. We aim for $18 but the ride may be bumpy.
Primary drivers
- Fewer investors are betting against the stock, raising chances of a quick price jump
- Share price is just 20% of yearly sales and even lower than asset value, limiting downside
- Recent price trend is up even after JPMorgan's negative report
- Back-to-school shoppers may bring in more sales than Wall Street expects
How it played out
KSS: target reached in 50 days
Lyra published KSS at $12.67 on 2025-07-29, with expected growth of 35% and a target of $16.88. The thesis pointed to a low price versus yearly sales and asset value, fewer investors betting against the stock, an uptrend after JPMorgan's negative report, and possible back-to-school strength. It also warned that the ride may be bumpy.
Inside the window, KSS reached the target in 50 days. The stock peaked at $18.15 on 2025-09-17, a 43.3% gain, then ended the window at $16.28 on 2025-10-27. The published thesis played out. It got there, then gave back part of the move.
What happened during the window
On 2025-08-27, Kohl's reported second-quarter results. Investopedia said adjusted earnings were $0.56 per share, revenue was $3.35 billion, comparable sales fell 4.2%, and the company raised its full-year profit outlook. On the same date, MarketWatch reported that Kohl's cited proprietary brands, Sephora, and back-to-school sales when it lifted its profit outlook.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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