NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from July 29, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 27, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 53% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published July 29, 2025
The share price has slid back to around $176, which matches its recent average over roughly two months. This gentle pullback and quiet trading suggest the run-up is merely catching its breath, not reversing. Meanwhile, a 300,000-unit H20 chip order for China and a new partnership with Onsemi for power chips highlight steady, wide-ranging demand and lower supply risk. When similar pauses happened before, the stock later climbed about 18-20% within three months, making a move toward $210 very possible.
Primary drivers
- Big 300,000-chip sale to China shows Nvidia can keep selling there under new rules
- Strong recent trading numbers suggest the overall upward trend is still healthy
- Deal with Onsemi locks in vital power parts, lowering the chance of future shortages
- Over 100 million shares bought by big funds hints money is moving into the stock
How it played out
NVDA: rose, but the target was not reached
Lyra published NVDA at 176.73 on 2025-07-29 with expected growth of 20%. The thesis pointed to a pullback near the recent average, quiet trading, a 300,000-chip H20 order for China, an Onsemi power-chip partnership, and more than 100 million shares bought by big funds. It expected a move toward 212.05 inside the short-term window.
Inside the window, NVDA rose but did not reach 212.05. The peak was 195.61 on 2025-10-10, with a peak gain of 10.7%. It ended at 191.48 on 2025-10-27. The thesis partly played out. Price moved in the expected direction, but it never got to the target.
What happened during the window
On August 27, 2025, Nvidia reported adjusted earnings of $1.05 per share and revenue of $46.74 billion for the second quarter. On September 18, 2025, Nvidia announced plans to buy $5 billion of Intel stock and work with Intel on data-center and PC products.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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