Track record · closed signal

SAP SE ADR (SAP) — closed signal from April 24, 2026

Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on July 23, 2026 — -15.8% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

SAP price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$173.78 Published $198.10 Target $146.38 Window close $196.39 Peak
$171.00 – $176.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$173.78Published — price the day we called it
$198.10Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$196.39Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$146.38Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Near target

Came within reach: 93% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.

At window close
-15.8%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+13%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+3.7%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$146.38
last close inside the window, ended July 23, 2026
Peak price
$196.39
peak on June 1, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published April 24, 2026

Predicted growth
+14%
over the measurement window
Target price
$198.10
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$171.00 – $176.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$173.78
published April 24, 2026
Confidence
81%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

SAP reported profits and sales above expectations, and the stock moved higher on that news. The shares are near a familiar uptrend line, which makes the near-term setup look orderly. Together this suggests the company's cloud and automation businesses are holding up and the next quarter looks constructive.

Primary drivers

  • Recent profit beat supports cloud execution and confidence
  • Stock price is near its trend line, lowering near-term risk
  • Ongoing demand for enterprise software keeps growth visible
  • Healthy balance sheet helps limit downside in sold periods

How it played out

SAP: the thesis partially played out, then reversed

Lyra published SAP at $173.78 with an expected gain of 14% and a $198.10 target. The thesis pointed to profits and sales above expectations, cloud execution, enterprise software demand, the stock's position near its trend line, and a healthy balance sheet.

The price rose to $196.39 on June 1, a peak gain of 13%. It stayed below the target. By July 23, it had fallen to $146.38. The thesis partially played out during the window, but the target was never reached and the signal ended below its publication price.

What happened during the window

On July 23, SAP reported second-quarter cloud revenue growth of 22% and total revenue growth of 9%.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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