Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) — closed signal from July 29, 2025
Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 27, 2025 — -9.8% at the close.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Came within reach: 81% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.
The thesis — published July 29, 2025
After nine straight days of falling, the stock is about 3% below its usual trading range, a level that has often been followed by 6-8% gains within a month. Demand for its car and factory chips is still strong, and a recent article praising the company’s careful use of debt lifted investor mood. The firm’s long record of paying dividends, together with heavier-than-normal option buying ahead of October results, could help shares rebound to roughly $210 within the next quarter.
Primary drivers
- Price sits in a spot that has often sparked quick rebounds in past trades.
- Strong orders for factory and car chips balance weakness in other chip areas.
- News praising the firm’s low debt and strong credit rating boosts confidence.
- Heavier option bets before the next earnings call suggest big investors expect gains.
How it played out
TXN: rebound fell short of the target
Lyra published TXN on 2025-07-29 at $186.23. The thesis expected 14% growth toward $208.91. It pointed to a nine-day fall, a price near a prior rebound area, strong factory and car chip orders, low debt and credit quality, dividends, and heavier option bets before October results.
Inside the window, TXN rose as high as $207.24 on 2025-08-22, a peak gain of 11.3%. It stayed below the $208.91 target and never reached it. By 2025-10-27, it ended at $167.91. The thesis partly played out, but the target missed.
What happened during the window
On October 21, 2025, Investors.com reported that Texas Instruments earned $1.48 a share on sales of $4.74 billion in the September quarter. The same report said the company gave a fourth-quarter midpoint outlook of $1.26 a share on sales of $4.4 billion.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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