Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) — closed signal from July 29, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 27, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Hit or exceeded the predicted growth inside the window.
The thesis — published July 29, 2025
After nine straight days of falling, the stock is about 3% below its usual trading range, a level that has often been followed by 6-8% gains within a month. Demand for its car and factory chips is still strong, and a recent article praising the company’s careful use of debt lifted investor mood. The firm’s long record of paying dividends, together with heavier-than-normal option buying ahead of October results, could help shares rebound to roughly $210 within the next quarter.
Primary drivers
- Price sits in a spot that has often sparked quick rebounds in past trades.
- Strong orders for factory and car chips balance weakness in other chip areas.
- News praising the firm’s low debt and strong credit rating boosts confidence.
- Heavier option bets before the next earnings call suggest big investors expect gains.
How it played out
TXN: rebound fell short of the target
Lyra published TXN on 2025-07-29 at $186.23. The thesis expected 14% growth toward $208.91. It pointed to a nine-day fall, a price near a prior rebound area, strong factory and car chip orders, low debt and credit quality, dividends, and heavier option bets before October results.
Inside the window, TXN rose as high as $207.24 on 2025-08-22, a peak gain of 11.3%. It stayed below the $208.91 target and never reached it. By 2025-10-27, it ended at $167.91. The thesis partly played out, but the target missed.
What happened during the window
On October 21, 2025, Investors.com reported that Texas Instruments earned $1.48 a share on sales of $4.74 billion in the September quarter. The same report said the company gave a fourth-quarter midpoint outlook of $1.26 a share on sales of $4.4 billion.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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