Track record · closed signal

First American Corporation (FAF) — closed signal from April 24, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on July 23, 2026 — -1.9% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

FAF price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$66.89 – $68.86Entry zone — fair-value band

$70.31Published — price the day we called it

$77.41Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$73.50Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$68.96Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 41% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-1.9%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+4.5%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+3.7%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$68.96

last close inside the window, ended July 23, 2026

Peak price

$73.50

peak on July 17, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published April 24, 2026

Predicted growth

+11%

over the measurement window

Target price

$77.41

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$66.89 – $68.86

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$70.31

published April 24, 2026

Confidence

75%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

First American reported better-than-expected results, strong commercial activity, and progress automating operations. Those things point to improving profits and a clearer business story. The stock jumped after the news and looks extended versus its recent path, so the case for the next quarter is intact but timing is less attractive unless the price cools.

Primary drivers

Better-than-expected results show commercial demand is strong
Automation rollout should help profit margins over time
No debt and steady cash make downside more controlled
A price pullback after the surge would improve timing

How it played out

FAF: the thesis rose partway, then missed

Lyra published a short-term thesis for FAF at $70.31, expecting 11% growth. The thesis pointed to better-than-expected results, strong commercial demand, automation expected to improve margins over time, steady cash, and a pullback after the earlier surge as a better entry setup.

FAF peaked at $73.50 on July 17, a 4.5% gain, but it never reached the $77.41 target. It ended the window at $68.96 on July 23. The price moved partway toward the target before giving back the gain. The thesis partially played out, but the expected 11% growth missed.

What happened during the window

On May 12, 2026, First American declared a quarterly cash dividend of 55 cents per share, payable June 15. On July 22, 2026, the company reported second-quarter revenue of $2.1 billion, up 15 percent from the prior year, and adjusted earnings of $2.08 per diluted share.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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