Track record · closed signal

Osisko Gold Royalties Ltd (OR) — closed signal from April 24, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on July 23, 2026 — -27.8% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

OR price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$39.34 – $40.63Entry zone — fair-value band

$40.25Published — price the day we called it

$46.59Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$40.68Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$29.05Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 7% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-27.8%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+1.1%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+3.7%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$29.05

last close inside the window, ended July 23, 2026

Peak price

$40.68

peak on April 24, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published April 24, 2026

Predicted growth

+16%

over the measurement window

Target price

$46.59

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$39.34 – $40.63

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$40.25

published April 24, 2026

Confidence

80%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Osisko offers a defensive way to benefit from gold and silver gains because it earns royalties instead of running mines, so it avoids many mining risks. New stream exposure at Bathurst and Canadian Copper give clearer growth potential. Shares sit near trend support after an oversold reset; a firm bullion price would help the next-quarter setup, and a strong balance sheet helps absorb normal metal-price swings.

Primary drivers

Royalties let the company earn from metals without running mines, lowering execution risk
New stream deal should add more future cash and optionality
An oversold reset near trend support improves timing for a rebound
A strong balance sheet helps absorb swings in metal prices

How it played out

OR: the 16% thesis missed its target

Lyra published OR at 40.25 with an expected 16% rise to 46.59. The thesis pointed to royalty income with less mining execution risk, new stream exposure at Bathurst and Canadian Copper, an oversold reset near trend support, and a strong balance sheet that could absorb metal-price swings.

Inside the window, OR peaked at 40.68 on April 24, a 1.1% gain. It never reached the 46.59 target. The shares ended the window at 29.05 on July 23. The published thesis did not play out.

What happened during the window

On May 6, OR Royalties reported first-quarter revenue from royalties and streams of $102.8 million. On July 8, the company reported preliminary second-quarter revenue of $97.8 million and 20,757 attributable gold equivalent ounces.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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