Track record · closed signal

Valley National Bancorp (VLY) — closed signal from April 23, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on July 22, 2026 — +8.8% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

VLY price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$12.81 – $13.15Entry zone — fair-value band

$13.34Published — price the day we called it

$14.70Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$15.20Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$14.52Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 63 days.

At window close

+8.8%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+13.9%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+5.8%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$14.52

last close inside the window, ended July 22, 2026

Peak price

$15.20

peak on July 16, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published April 23, 2026

Predicted growth

+11%

over the measurement window

Target price

$14.70

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$12.81 – $13.15

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$13.34

published April 23, 2026

Confidence

78%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

VLY looks interesting for the next few months because the business is running better and recent trading has been constructive, which helps counter common doubts about regional banks. Market attention is on the upcoming quarterly report that could show much stronger profits versus last year. Price hasn't run up like peers, but earnings risk means it's safer to prefer weakness over buying strength.

Primary drivers

Business performance is clearly better than a year ago
The next quarter could confirm the profit recovery
Trading volume looks healthy and the chart isn't overextended
Executives buying and valuation reduce regional-bank risk

How it played out

VLY: target reached in 63 days

Lyra published VLY at $13.34 with an expected gain of 11% and a $14.70 target. The thesis pointed to better business performance than a year earlier, a possible profit recovery confirmation in the next quarter, healthy trading volume, a chart that was not overextended, executive buying and valuation.

During the window, VLY reached the $14.70 target in 63 days. It peaked at $15.20 on July 16, a 13.9% gain from publication. It ended the window at $14.52, still above the $13.34 publication price but below its peak. The published short-term thesis played out in full.

What happened during the window

On April 23, Valley reported first-quarter 2026 net income of $163.9 million, compared with $106.1 million in the first quarter of 2025. On May 28, Valley announced two appointments to its consumer banking leadership team.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All VLY signals