Track record · closed signal

Berkshire Hathaway Inc (BRK-B) — closed signal from April 23, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on July 22, 2026 — +4.3% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

BRK-B price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$462.00 – $472.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$469.38Published — price the day we called it

$511.62Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$512.58Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$489.39Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 75 days.

At window close

+4.3%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+9.2%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+5.8%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$489.39

last close inside the window, ended July 22, 2026

Peak price

$512.58

peak on July 7, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published April 23, 2026

Predicted growth

+9%

over the measurement window

Target price

$511.62

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$462.00 – $472.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$469.38

published April 23, 2026

Confidence

73%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Berkshire looks like a steadier choice for the next few months because it has a lot of cash and many different businesses, so it can handle a cooler stock market. A deeper Japanese insurance tie gives a clear place to put capital. Shares are nearer a low point than a peak, so gains may be smaller but downside is better controlled and flexibility is a benefit.

Primary drivers

Large cash reserves help limit losses if stocks fall
Japanese insurance deal provides a clear way to deploy capital
Revenue from many businesses cushions weaker markets
Shares are near a cheaper area, improving rebound odds

How it played out

BRK-B: target reached in 75 days

Lyra published BRK-B at $469.38 with an expected gain of 9% over the short term. The thesis pointed to large cash reserves, revenue from many businesses, a Japanese insurance deal as a place to deploy capital, and a share price near a cheaper area. It expected those factors to support a rebound and limit downside.

The shares reached the $511.62 target in 75 days. They peaked at $512.58 on July 7, a gain of 9.2%. The price then fell back and ended the window at $489.39. The published target was reached, so the thesis played out within the measurement window.

What happened during the window

On May 2, 2026, Berkshire reported first-quarter net earnings of $10,106 million. On May 31, 2026, Berkshire announced an agreement to acquire Taylor Morrison Home Corporation for $8.5 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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