Track record · closed signal

Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) — closed signal from April 23, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on July 22, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

LLY price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$923.24 Published $1,089.42 Target $1,163.01 Window close $1,249.45 Peak
$905.00 – $930.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$923.24Published — price the day we called it
$1,089.42Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$1,249.45Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$1,163.01Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 34 days.

Peak price
$1,249.45
peak on July 7, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+35.3%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$1,163.01
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
34
Window
April 23, 2026 – July 22, 2026

The thesis — published April 23, 2026

Predicted growth
+18%
over the measurement window
Target price
$1,089.42
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$905.00 – $930.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$923.24
published April 23, 2026
Confidence
82%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Lilly looks strong for the next 0-3 months because the company is executing well: sales and profits are growing and the stock price is not unusually high compared with its recent direction. That mix-solid business results plus a price near typical trend levels-helps justify a positive view even though the stock is priced richly. The story is based on steady business performance rather than waiting for a big news event.

Primary drivers

  • Reliable growth in sales and profits from key medicines
  • Share price sits close to its recent trend, not far above
  • Thesis rests on steady execution rather than headlines
  • Strong growth profile helps the stock hold up short-term

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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