Track record · closed signal

Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL) — closed signal from April 22, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on July 21, 2026 — +3.3% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

GOOGL price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$336.16 Published $376.50 Target $347.15 Window close $408.61 Peak
$325.00 – $336.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$336.16Published — price the day we called it
$376.50Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$408.61Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$347.15Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 8 days.

At window close
+3.3%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+21.6%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+5.5%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$347.15
last close inside the window, ended July 21, 2026
Peak price
$408.61
peak on May 18, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
8

The thesis — published April 22, 2026

Predicted growth
+12%
over the measurement window
Target price
$376.50
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$325.00 – $336.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$336.16
published April 22, 2026
Confidence
78%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Alphabet looks attractive over the next few months because business trends are solid and an earnings report is coming soon. New Gemini Enterprise and cloud deals make the case that AI could bring in more revenue. Trading momentum is positive but not extreme, so there is room to move higher if search and cloud stay strong and capital spending worries stay limited.

Primary drivers

  • Earnings are a near-term event that could move the stock
  • Gemini Enterprise and cloud deals help monetize AI efforts
  • Search, cloud, and ads together generate steady cash flow
  • Current trading strength suggests more upside is possible

How it played out

GOOGL: target reached in 8 days

Lyra published GOOGL at $336.16 with expected growth of 12% and a target of $376.50. The thesis pointed to the approaching earnings report, Gemini Enterprise and cloud deals, cash flow from search, cloud and ads, and positive trading momentum.

The shares reached the target in 8 days. They later peaked at $408.61 on May 18, a gain of 21.6%. By the end of the window, they had fallen to $347.15. The published thesis played out within the measurement window, though much of the peak gain was gone by the close.

What happened during the window

On June 3, Alphabet published an investor presentation that discussed business momentum, its artificial intelligence strategy and Google Cloud.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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