Track record · closed signal

OR Royalties (OR) — closed signal from April 22, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on July 21, 2026 — -28.1% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

OR price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$39.34 – $41.33Entry zone — fair-value band

$40.65Published — price the day we called it

$46.65Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$40.82Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$29.22Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 3% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-28.1%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+0.4%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+5.5%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$29.22

last close inside the window, ended July 21, 2026

Peak price

$40.82

peak on April 22, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published April 22, 2026

Predicted growth

+15%

over the measurement window

Target price

$46.65

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$39.34 – $41.33

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$40.65

published April 22, 2026

Confidence

76%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

OR Royalties gives exposure to gold and silver with less day-to-day risk than running mines because it collects payments on production instead of operating mines. New streaming and equity deals increase possible future income, and the share price has pulled back into a range that looks workable. Very low trading volume is a clear risk, so the stock is viewed cautiously versus larger, more liquid peers.

Primary drivers

Royalties reduce operating headaches and give steady exposure to metals
New stream deal could add future revenue optionality
Strong balance sheet helps limit downside in volatile times
Recent pullback makes near-term setup more constructive if metals hold

How it played out

OR: the short-term thesis missed

Lyra published a short-term thesis on April 22 at $40.65, with expected growth of 15%. The thesis pointed to royalty income as a way to reduce operating risk, a new stream deal as possible future income, a strong balance sheet, and a recent pullback. It also flagged very low trading volume as a clear risk.

OR peaked at $40.82 on April 22, a gain of 0.4%, and stayed below the $46.65 target throughout the window. The target was never reached. By July 21, the price had fallen to $29.22. The published thesis missed. The expected 15% rise did not play out inside the measurement window.

What happened during the window

On May 6, OR Royalties reported first-quarter operating cash flow of $71.9 million. On July 8, it reported preliminary second-quarter deliveries of 20,757 gold equivalent ounces and revenue of $97.8 million.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All OR signals