Track record · closed signal

First Majestic Silver Corp (AG) — closed signal from April 22, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on July 21, 2026 — -18.6% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

AG price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$20.00 – $21.50Entry zone — fair-value band

$20.72Published — price the day we called it

$22.79Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$24.51Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$16.87Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 15 days.

At window close

-18.6%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+18.3%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+5.5%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$16.87

last close inside the window, ended July 21, 2026

Peak price

$24.51

peak on May 12, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published April 22, 2026

Predicted growth

+10%

over the measurement window

Target price

$22.79

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$20.00 – $21.50

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$20.72

published April 22, 2026

Confidence

63%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

First Majestic could benefit if silver sentiment improves, but it's weaker than better peers. Operations are steady and there is a restart plan, but the restart won't help this quarter. The share price moves a lot with metal prices, so near-term gains are less reliable than in more balanced stocks.

Primary drivers

Silver exposure helps if hedging demand stays firm
Operations are tracking company guidance recently
Restart plans provide longer-term optional upside
High price sensitivity makes this a tactical trade

How it played out

AG: target reached in 15 days

Lyra published AG at 20.72, with a 10% expected gain and a 22.79 target. The thesis pointed to firm hedging demand for silver, operations tracking company guidance, and longer-term upside from a restart plan. It also warned that high sensitivity to metal prices made near-term gains less reliable.

Within the window, AG reached 22.79 in 15 days and rose to a 24.51 peak on 2026-05-12, an 18.3% peak gain. It later fell and ended the window at 16.87, below the 20.72 publication price. The published target was reached and exceeded, so the thesis played out within the stated window, even though the gain did not hold through the end.

What happened during the window

On May 12, 2026, First Majestic reported first-quarter revenue of $476.7 million and net earnings of $128.1 million. On July 8, 2026, the company reported second-quarter production results and updated its 2026 production and cost guidance.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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