Track record · closed signal

Intuitive Surgical Inc (ISRG) — closed signal from April 22, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on July 21, 2026 — -27.7% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

ISRG price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$472.00 – $486.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$484.12Published — price the day we called it

$561.57Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$491.15Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$350.06Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 9% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-27.7%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+1.5%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+5.5%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$350.06

last close inside the window, ended July 21, 2026

Peak price

$491.15

peak on April 22, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published April 22, 2026

Predicted growth

+16%

over the measurement window

Target price

$561.57

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$472.00 – $486.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$484.12

published April 22, 2026

Confidence

86%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Intuitive showed a strong quarter with higher procedure growth and a better full-year outlook, reinforcing both growth and steady revenue from instruments and services. The price action after earnings looks orderly, not overstretched, so the stock appears positioned to follow through while short-term enthusiasm settles.

Primary drivers

Company raised procedure forecasts after a strong quarter
Repeating instrument and service sales provide steady revenue
Wide adoption of the platform across current and new systems
Post-earnings price action looks orderly, not extreme

How it played out

ISRG: the thesis didn't play out

Lyra published ISRG at $484.12 and expected 16% growth. The thesis pointed to higher procedure forecasts after a strong quarter, recurring instrument and service sales, wider platform adoption, and orderly price action after earnings. The published target was $561.57.

The stock peaked at $491.15 on April 22, a gain of 1.5%. It never reached the target during the window. By July 21, it had fallen to $350.06, well below both the publication price and target. The thesis did not play out.

What happened during the window

On May 21, Intuitive announced enhancements across da Vinci 5 and its supporting systems. On July 16, the company reported second-quarter revenue of $2.89 billion, up 19% from the prior-year quarter.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All ISRG signals