Track record · closed signal

Gilead Sciences Inc (GILD) — closed signal from April 20, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on July 19, 2026 — -1.5% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

GILD price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$132.26 – $137.19Entry zone — fair-value band

$136.27Published — price the day we called it

$151.63Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$140.61Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$134.28Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 27% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-1.5%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+3.2%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+5.1%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$134.28

last close inside the window, ended July 19, 2026

Peak price

$140.61

peak on July 17, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published April 20, 2026

Predicted growth

+12%

over the measurement window

Target price

$151.63

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$132.26 – $137.19

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$136.27

published April 20, 2026

Confidence

76%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Gilead mixes steady profits with near-term opportunities in cancer drugs and HIV. Recent updates on expanded cancer programs, efforts to broaden access to lenacapavir, and a raised price target make the short-term picture more positive. The stock is rebounding from weakness and the outlook does not rely on a broad biotech rally.

Primary drivers

New cancer program expansion widens future drug options
Efforts to broaden lenacapavir access strengthen HIV story
Strong profits help the stock weather downturns
Lowered share levels make recovery more plausible

How it played out

GILD: the 12% growth thesis did not play out

Lyra expected GILD to rise 12% from its publication price of $136.27. The thesis pointed to expanded cancer programs, broader access to lenacapavir, steady profits, and a possible rebound from lower share levels.

GILD peaked at $140.61 on July 17, a gain of 3.2% within the window. It never reached the $151.63 target. The stock ended the window at $134.28, below both the publication price and the target. The thesis did not play out.

What happened during the window

On April 28, Gilead completed its acquisition of Arcellx. On May 7, the company reported first-quarter revenue of $7.0 billion and raised its full-year revenue guidance.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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