Track record · closed signal

Compania de Minas Buenaventura SAA ADR (BVN) — closed signal from April 20, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on July 19, 2026 — -13.8% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

BVN price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$35.09 Published $39.65 Target $30.24 Window close $38.65 Peak
$34.00 – $36.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$35.09Published — price the day we called it
$39.65Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$38.65Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$30.24Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 78% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
-13.8%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+10.2%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+5.1%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$30.24
last close inside the window, ended July 19, 2026
Peak price
$38.65
peak on May 13, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published April 20, 2026

Predicted growth
+13%
over the measurement window
Target price
$39.65
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$34.00 – $36.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$35.09
published April 20, 2026
Confidence
78%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Buenaventura shows momentum from improved mine performance and better project execution, and the share price has pulled back to a safer level. Recent production news and a higher price target after progress at San Gabriel make the near-term outlook more constructive. Valuation looks reasonable given earnings strength, so a recovery seems possible without metals needing to surge.

Primary drivers

  • Production news and San Gabriel progress lifted the outlook
  • Solid earnings performance supports market sentiment
  • Valuation looks fair versus operating improvement
  • Price reset gives room for a steady recovery

How it played out

BVN: rose 10.2% but missed the target

Lyra published a 13% growth thesis from a price of $35.09 toward $39.65. The thesis pointed to improved mine performance, San Gabriel progress, solid earnings, a reasonable valuation, and the price reset as support for a near-term recovery.

BVN rose to a peak of $38.65 on May 13, a gain of 10.2%. It stayed below the target and never reached it. By July 19, the price had fallen to $30.24. The thesis partially played out during the early rise, but the expected gain did not materialize within the window.

What happened during the window

On April 29, 2026, Buenaventura reported that first-quarter gold production rose 8% from a year earlier and that San Gabriel had entered its ramp-up phase.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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