Track record · closed signal

Charles Schwab Corp (SCHW) — closed signal from April 20, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on July 19, 2026 — +9.3% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

SCHW price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$92.93 Published $107.79 Target $101.56 Window close $103.97 Peak
$91.00 – $94.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$92.93Published — price the day we called it
$107.79Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$103.97Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$101.56Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 74% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
+9.3%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+11.9%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+5.1%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$101.56
last close inside the window, ended July 19, 2026
Peak price
$103.97
peak on July 13, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published April 20, 2026

Predicted growth
+16%
over the measurement window
Target price
$107.79
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$91.00 – $94.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$92.93
published April 20, 2026
Confidence
82%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Charles Schwab looks positioned to recover: earnings were solid, offering new crypto trading that could get customers more active, and recent FINRA changes could increase retail trading. The business itself is steady and not expensive, so if market sentiment improves the stock has a believable three-month recovery path.

Primary drivers

  • Good quarterly results show steady business momentum
  • Crypto trading launch can increase client activity
  • Regulatory change may boost retail trading levels
  • A calm pullback gives room for a measured recovery

How it played out

SCHW: rose 11.9% but missed the target

Lyra published SCHW at $92.93 with an expected gain of 16% and a $107.79 target over the short-term window. The thesis pointed to solid quarterly results, a new crypto trading offer, regulatory changes that could lift retail trading, and room for a measured recovery after a calm pullback.

The stock rose to a peak of $103.97 on July 13, a gain of 11.9%. It never reached the $107.79 target. SCHW ended the window at $101.56, still above the publication price but below its peak. The thesis partially played out.

What happened during the window

On June 2, 2026, Schwab announced trading-platform enhancements, including select cryptocurrency futures trading and expanded fractional trading for most U.S. stocks and ETFs.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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