Track record · closed signal

Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) — closed signal from April 19, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on July 18, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

LLY price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$927.03 Published $1,066.08 Target $1,179.11 Window close $1,249.45 Peak
$915.00 – $940.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$927.03Published — price the day we called it
$1,066.08Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$1,249.45Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$1,179.11Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 33 days.

Peak price
$1,249.45
peak on July 7, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+34.8%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$1,179.11
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
33
Window
April 19, 2026 – July 18, 2026

The thesis — published April 19, 2026

Predicted growth
+15%
over the measurement window
Target price
$1,066.08
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$915.00 – $940.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$927.03
published April 19, 2026
Confidence
83%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Lilly's growth is coming mainly from strong demand for its medicines and solid execution, not just market excitement. A regulatory request about the obesity drug raises real risk, but a related trial update helped calm safety concerns. Shares are holding near the short-term trend, which suggests a reasonable 0-3 month setup rather than a runaway move.

Primary drivers

  • Strong demand from GLP-1 and other drug businesses
  • Trial update reinforced the safety and effectiveness story
  • FDA data request is a clear but manageable headline risk
  • Shares are holding near short-term trend support

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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