Track record · closed signal

Valley National Bancorp (VLY) — closed signal from April 18, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on July 17, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

VLY price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$13.42 Published $14.78 Target $14.95 Window close $15.20 Peak
$12.76 – $13.15Entry zone — fair-value band
$13.42Published — price the day we called it
$14.78Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$15.20Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$14.95Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 68 days.

Peak price
$15.20
peak on July 16, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+13.3%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$14.95
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
68
Window
April 18, 2026 – July 17, 2026

The thesis — published April 18, 2026

Predicted growth
+11%
over the measurement window
Target price
$14.78
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$12.76 – $13.15
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$13.42
published April 18, 2026
Confidence
77%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Valley National looks like a reasonable short-term bank idea because its business is gaining momentum, valuation is reasonable, insiders are buying, and the bank is expanding into Arizona and pushing small-business banking. The stock climbed quickly, so timing matters; a pullback and steady earnings would make a re-rating more likely.

Primary drivers

  • Arizona expansion adds new commercial banking opportunities
  • New small-business leadership should support revenue growth
  • Stock price still looks reasonably valued vs. improving results
  • Insider buying increases confidence in the turnaround story

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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