Kyndryl Holdings Inc. (KD) — closed signal from July 28, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 26, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 7% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published July 28, 2025
Kyndryl’s share price has dropped so much that many indicators call it oversold, meaning it could rebound if buyers return. The firm launched its Agentic AI service on 17 Jul, hinting at new growth, and the 4 Aug earnings report might show the first quarter-to-quarter sales increase since it left IBM. But sales have fallen for four years and margins are slim, so any rise toward $46 relies on positive guidance, keeping it on our watch list.
Primary drivers
- The 17 Jul AI launch could attract new clients and shift work to higher-profit jobs.
- Many shares are borrowed for short selling, so good news could force quick buying.
- Results due 4 Aug may show the first quarter-to-quarter sales rise since the split.
- The price is resting near a long-term floor, so losses can be limited if wrong.
How it played out
KD: the thesis did not reach its target
Lyra published KD at $39.12 on 2025-07-28 with 30% expected growth and a $50.86 target. The thesis pointed to an oversold share price, the 17 Jul artificial intelligence service launch, heavy short selling, results due 4 Aug, and a price near a long-term floor.
Inside the window, KD peaked at $39.98 on 2025-07-29, for a 2.2% peak gain. It stayed below the $50.86 target and never reached it. By 2025-10-26, it ended at $28.49. The published rebound thesis missed.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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