Track record · closed signal

Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc (ARWR) — closed signal from April 17, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on July 16, 2026 — +2.4% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

ARWR price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$66.00 – $68.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$69.69Published — price the day we called it

$78.05Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$87.83Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$71.38Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 19 days.

At window close

+2.4%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+26%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+6%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$71.38

last close inside the window, ended July 16, 2026

Peak price

$87.83

peak on July 6, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published April 17, 2026

Predicted growth

+12%

over the measurement window

Target price

$78.05

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$66.00 – $68.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$69.69

published April 17, 2026

Confidence

67%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Arrowhead is a higher-risk healthcare stock but has real reasons for interest. New plozasiran results renewed confidence in its RNA-based drug approach, and the company has enough cash to keep developing programs without urgent fundraising. The stock already bounced and few traders are active, so we prefer a pullback entry rather than chasing the current move.

Primary drivers

Plozasiran results boost faith in RNA-based drugs
Strong cash position lets development continue
Provides biotech exposure with event-driven upside
Better on a pullback while trading remains light

How it played out

ARWR: target reached in 19 days

On April 17, Lyra published ARWR at $69.69, expecting 12% growth toward $78.05. The thesis pointed to plozasiran results, a strong cash position that could support continued development, and event-driven upside. It also preferred a pullback into the $66 to $68 entry zone because the stock had already bounced and trading was light.

The price reached the target in 19 days. It later peaked at $87.83 on July 6, a 26% gain from publication. By July 16, it had fallen back to $71.38, still above the published price but below the target. The thesis played out within the measurement window, though the peak did not hold.

What happened during the window

On May 1, Arrowhead said Australian regulators had approved plozasiran for adults with familial chylomicronemia syndrome. On May 27, the company presented interim clinical results for ARO-INHBE in obesity and metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All ARWR signals