Track record · closed signal

Frontline Ltd (FRO) — closed signal from April 17, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on July 16, 2026 — +7.2% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

FRO price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$34.68 Published $37.22 Target $37.17 Window close $43.10 Peak
$32.14 – $33.52Entry zone — fair-value band
$34.68Published — price the day we called it
$37.22Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$43.10Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$37.17Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 56 days.

At window close
+7.2%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+24.3%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+6%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$37.17
last close inside the window, ended July 16, 2026
Peak price
$43.10
peak on June 24, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
56

The thesis — published April 17, 2026

Predicted growth
+12%
over the measurement window
Target price
$37.22
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$32.14 – $33.52
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$34.68
published April 17, 2026
Confidence
70%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Frontline could move higher over the next few months because real shipping problems are tightening supply and lifting tanker demand quickly. That kind of news can change freight rates fast. The setup is short-term and can swing widely, so strength needs to hold; the stock sits near a support level and news remains directly relevant.

Primary drivers

  • Shipping disruptions raise demand for tankers
  • Freight rates can rise quickly in a tight market
  • Shares sit near a support level after a pullback
  • Gives energy exposure outside tech leadership

How it played out

FRO: target reached in 56 days

Lyra published FRO at $34.68 with expected growth of 12% and a target of $37.22. The thesis pointed to shipping disruptions, tighter tanker supply, rising freight rates and support after a pullback. It also cited energy exposure outside technology stocks.

The shares reached the $37.22 target in 56 days. They peaked at $43.10 on June 24, a gain of 24.3%. FRO ended the window at $37.17 on July 16, just under the target but above the publication price. The thesis played out within the stated window.

What happened during the window

On May 22, Frontline reported first-quarter profit of $559.1 million and declared a cash dividend of $1.55 per share. It also reported two one-year charter agreements for new vessels delivered on April 30 and May 20 at $110,000 per day per vessel.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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