Track record · closed signal

Compania de Minas Buenaventura SAA ADR (BVN) — closed signal from April 17, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on July 16, 2026 — -18.6% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

BVN price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$37.08 Published $41.53 Target $30.17 Window close $38.65 Peak
$36.00 – $37.50Entry zone — fair-value band
$37.08Published — price the day we called it
$41.53Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$38.65Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$30.17Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 35% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
-18.6%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+4.2%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+6%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$30.17
last close inside the window, ended July 16, 2026
Peak price
$38.65
peak on May 13, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published April 17, 2026

Predicted growth
+12%
over the measurement window
Target price
$41.53
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$36.00 – $37.50
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$37.08
published April 17, 2026
Confidence
79%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Buenaventura is being considered as a way to diversify into metals because the company is showing stronger operating performance and recent production updates support that trend. An upcoming earnings call could confirm progress. Price action is near long-term support and the valuation looks reasonable for a short-term 0-3 month window if operations stay on track.

Primary drivers

  • Recent production news shows improving operations
  • Earnings call could confirm recent progress
  • Reasonable valuation for a cyclical mining stock
  • Price is trading near trend support, not a crowded spike

How it played out

BVN: the 12% growth thesis missed

Lyra published BVN at $37.08 with an expected gain of 12% and a $41.53 target. The thesis pointed to improving operations, recent production updates, an earnings call that could confirm progress, reasonable valuation, and price near long-term support.

BVN peaked at $38.65 on May 13, a gain of 4.2%. It stayed below the target throughout the window. By July 16, it had fallen to $30.17, below the publication price and the $36 to $37.50 entry zone. The thesis did not play out.

What happened during the window

On April 29, 2026, Buenaventura reported first-quarter results. Gold production rose 8% from a year earlier, while copper production fell 11%.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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