Track record · closed signal

Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) — closed signal from July 28, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 26, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

PLTR price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$158.80 Published $198.50 Target $184.63 Window close $190.00 Peak
$145.00 – $150.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$158.80Published — price the day we called it
$198.50Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$190.00Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$184.63Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 78% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$190.00
peak on August 12, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+19.6%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$184.63
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
July 28, 2025 – October 26, 2025

The thesis — published July 28, 2025

Predicted growth
+25%
over the measurement window
Target price
$198.50
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$145.00 – $150.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$158.80
published July 28, 2025
Confidence
68%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

The stock set a new high on 28 Jul as excitement about its artificial-intelligence work drew in twice the usual number of buyers. Most option traders are betting it will rise, showing strong interest, but the company’s financial score is still low. Unless the US Defense Department soon awards a big contract, the price could slip 10-15%. We would rather wait near $145, or for firm news, before calling it a solid buy. The latest surge looks driven more by story than by profits, so patience may pay off.

Primary drivers

  • New high shows investors still hungry for any company tied to AI themes.
  • Possible large military contracts this quarter could justify today’s price.
  • Strong volume hints that big institutions have been buying shares lately.
  • Share price looks stretched, so a rough pullback is possible; patience helps.

How it played out

PLTR: the target was not reached

Lyra published PLTR at $158.8 on 2025-07-28 with a short-term thesis for 25% growth. The thesis pointed to a new high, heavy buying, interest around artificial-intelligence themes, possible large military contracts, and a stretched share price that could pull back 10-15% without firm news.

Inside the window from 2025-07-28 to 2025-10-26, PLTR rose to a peak of $190 on 2025-08-12. That was a 19.6% gain, but it stayed below the $198.5 target. It ended at $184.63. The thesis partly played out, because the stock rose, but it never got there.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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