TAL Education Group (TAL) — closed signal from April 16, 2026
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on July 15, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
TAL price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$11.50 – $11.90Entry zone — fair-value band
$12.10Published — price the day we called it
$13.79Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$12.84Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$10.45Window close — end-of-window price, context only
What happened
Partial
Reached 44% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
Peak price
$12.84
peak on April 17, 2026 — not a realized returnPeak gain
+6.1%
peak, from the publication priceWindow close
$10.45
end-of-window price, context onlyDays to target
—
Window
April 16, 2026 – July 15, 2026
The thesis — published April 16, 2026
Predicted growth
+14%
over the measurement windowTarget price
$13.79
the price the thesis aimed forEntry zone
$11.50 – $11.90
the fair-value band we waited forPrice at publication
$12.10
published April 16, 2026Confidence
66%
how strongly the data lined upTimeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)
Near-term earnings on April 23 creates a clear event that can move the stock over the next 0-3 months. Recent operating performance has been strong, which supports that move. Caution is warranted because the price is already extended and it is unclear how the company will grow after the upcoming report.
Primary drivers
- April earnings could confirm the recent positive operating trend
- Large cash reserves help the company handle market swings
- Recovering demand for education supports core revenue
- A clear event date can draw short-term, event-focused interest
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
Lyra
Read the next call before it closes.
This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.