Track record · closed signal

Valley National Bancorp (VLY) — closed signal from April 16, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on July 15, 2026 — +13.2% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

VLY price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$12.61 – $12.90Entry zone — fair-value band

$13.11Published — price the day we called it

$14.18Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$15.01Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$14.84Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 55 days.

At window close

+13.2%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+14.5%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+7.9%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$14.84

last close inside the window, ended July 15, 2026

Peak price

$15.01

peak on July 7, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published April 16, 2026

Predicted growth

+9%

over the measurement window

Target price

$14.18

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$12.61 – $12.90

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$13.11

published April 16, 2026

Confidence

64%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

- Summarize positives: Phoenix expansion and a new small-business banking leader improve growth and sales opportunities. - Summarize concerns: the stock doesn't look cheap enough given sensitivity of smaller banks and near-term progress seems gradual. - Net view: constructive signs exist, but upside looks limited unless shares show firmer support and clearer follow-through.

Primary drivers

Phoenix expansion widens commercial-banking footprint
New small-business leader can boost sales to local clients
Smaller regional banks face tougher sentiment than big banks
Planned improvements feel gradual, so near-term gains may be limited

How it played out

VLY: target reached in 55 days

Lyra published a short-term thesis at $13.11, with 9% expected growth and a $14.18 target. The thesis pointed to the Phoenix expansion and a new small-business banking leader as possible support for growth and sales. It also cited tougher sentiment toward smaller regional banks and expected gradual near-term progress.

VLY reached the $14.18 target in 55 days. It later peaked at $15.01 on July 7, a 14.5% gain, and ended the window at $14.84. The shares cleared the target and held above it at the end. The thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On April 23, 2026, Valley reported first-quarter net income of $163.9 million, or $0.28 per diluted common share. On July 7, 2026, it announced that second-quarter results would be released on July 23.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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