Track record · closed signal

Celsius Holdings Inc (CELH) — closed signal from April 16, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on July 15, 2026 — -16.3% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

CELH price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$34.50 – $36.50Entry zone — fair-value band

$36.10Published — price the day we called it

$42.59Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$36.46Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$30.21Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 6% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-16.3%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+1%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+7.9%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$30.21

last close inside the window, ended July 15, 2026

Peak price

$36.46

peak on April 16, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published April 16, 2026

Predicted growth

+18%

over the measurement window

Target price

$42.59

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$34.50 – $36.50

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$36.10

published April 16, 2026

Confidence

74%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Celsius looks cleaner than many consumer stocks because recent updates show real actions being taken, not just hopes of a turnaround. Retail shelf changes are almost done, Pepsi is working more closely on distribution, and the stock trades well below prior highs. Since shares are near support, we see a believable rebound in the next 0-3 months if sell-through improves.

Primary drivers

Retail shelf resets are nearly finished in key stores
Better Pepsi distribution can make product movement easier
Lower valuation versus highs improves potential upside
Shares sit near support, allowing room to recover

How it played out

CELH: the rebound thesis missed

Lyra published CELH at $36.10 with an expected 18% gain over the short-term window. The thesis pointed to nearly completed retail shelf resets, closer Pepsi distribution, a lower valuation versus prior highs, and shares near support. It expected a rebound if sell-through improved.

The price peaked at $36.46 on April 16, 2026, a 1% gain, and never reached the $42.59 target. By July 15, 2026, it had fallen to $30.21. The published rebound thesis missed within the measurement window. It never got there.

What happened during the window

On May 7, 2026, Celsius reported first-quarter revenue of $782.6 million and net income of $110.1 million. On July 15, 2026, it filed an 8-K covering a material definitive agreement and a new direct financial obligation.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All CELH signals