Track record · closed signal

Compania de Minas Buenaventura SAA ADR (BVN) — closed signal from April 16, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on July 15, 2026 — -15.8% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

BVN price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$35.50 – $36.80Entry zone — fair-value band

$36.47Published — price the day we called it

$41.57Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$38.65Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$30.71Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 43% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-15.8%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+6%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+7.9%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$30.71

last close inside the window, ended July 15, 2026

Peak price

$38.65

peak on May 13, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published April 16, 2026

Predicted growth

+14%

over the measurement window

Target price

$41.57

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$35.50 – $36.80

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$36.47

published April 16, 2026

Confidence

83%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Buenaventura looks appealing now because its business is gaining momentum, the share price is reasonably valued, and timing lines up with an upcoming late-April earnings report. Recent analyst attention raised the price target, and the stock is trading near a key level instead of running too fast. If gold and silver hold up, profits and investor interest could rise.

Primary drivers

Earnings in late April can confirm stronger operations and profits
A higher analyst price target can attract more investor attention
Stock is near a calm price area rather than in an overheated climb
Direct exposure to gold and silver can boost earnings when metals firm

How it played out

BVN: the 14% growth thesis missed

Lyra published BVN at $36.47 with expected growth of 14% and a $41.57 target. The thesis pointed to late-April earnings, stronger operations and profits, a higher analyst price target, a calm trading area, and exposure to gold and silver prices.

BVN rose to a window peak of $38.65 on May 13, a gain of 6%. It stayed below the target throughout the window. By July 15, it had fallen to $30.71. The published thesis did not play out within the measured period.

What happened during the window

On April 16, Buenaventura reported its first-quarter production and sales volumes by metal. On April 29, it reported first-quarter revenue of $624.6 million and net income attributable to owners of $335.4 million.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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