Track record · closed signal

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from April 15, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on July 14, 2026 — +7.1% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

NVDA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$197.68 Published $227.33 Target $211.80 Window close $236.54 Peak
$192.00 – $200.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$197.68Published — price the day we called it
$227.33Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$236.54Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$211.80Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 28 days.

At window close
+7.1%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+19.7%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+7.7%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$211.80
last close inside the window, ended July 14, 2026
Peak price
$236.54
peak on May 14, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
28

The thesis — published April 15, 2026

Predicted growth
+15%
over the measurement window
Target price
$227.33
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$192.00 – $200.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$197.68
published April 15, 2026
Confidence
73%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Nvidia's business is very strong because big cloud companies are still buying lots of powerful chips and systems for AI work. That demand and recent large deals support continued growth. However, many investors already own the stock and expectations are high, so it can fall quickly if buying slows or spending news turns uncertain.

Primary drivers

  • Cloud providers are buying more AI compute for data centers
  • A big cloud deal shows companies are committing to more compute spending
  • Consistent strong results support its premium market position
  • Company leadership and execution remain strong despite crowded ownership

How it played out

NVDA: target reached in 28 days

Lyra published NVDA at 197.68 with 15% expected growth and a 227.33 target. The thesis pointed to cloud providers buying more compute for data centers, a large cloud deal, consistent strong results, and strong leadership and execution. It also noted crowded ownership and high expectations as risks.

The stock reached 227.33 in 28 days. It peaked at 236.54 on May 14, 2026, for a 19.7% gain. By July 14, 2026, it had fallen to 211.80, still above the 197.68 publication price but below the target. The thesis played out within the window.

What happened during the window

On May 20, 2026, NVIDIA reported first-quarter revenue of $81.6 billion, up 85% from a year earlier.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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