Track record · closed signal

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from April 14, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on July 13, 2026 — +5.7% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

NVDA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$182.00 – $188.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$192.58Published — price the day we called it

$219.54Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$236.54Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$203.53Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 27 days.

At window close

+5.7%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+22.8%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+8.2%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$203.53

last close inside the window, ended July 13, 2026

Peak price

$236.54

peak on May 14, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published April 14, 2026

Predicted growth

+14%

over the measurement window

Target price

$219.54

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$182.00 – $188.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$192.58

published April 14, 2026

Confidence

72%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

NVIDIA leads the market for AI data-center chips and keeps making strong profits and consistent quarterly results. Recent headlines are mostly about the whole tech sector, not a new company-specific event, so the near-term case depends on its market leadership. Shares moved up a lot with heavy buying, so the trade looks safer after a pullback.

Primary drivers

Leadership in AI chips drives most data-center spending decisions
Consistent strong quarterly results justify a premium valuation
High market visibility keeps investor attention on the stock
After heavy buying, entries look better on price pullbacks

How it played out

NVDA: target reached in 27 days

Lyra published a short-term thesis for 14% growth from a $192.58 publication price. The thesis pointed to NVIDIA's leadership in data-center chips for artificial intelligence, consistent quarterly results, high market visibility, and better entries after heavy buying and a pullback.

The shares reached the $219.54 target in 27 days. They peaked at $236.54 on May 14, a 22.8% gain, then ended the window at $203.53. The target was reached and exceeded inside the window, so the published thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On May 7, NVIDIA and IREN announced a strategic partnership for up to 5 gigawatts of artificial intelligence infrastructure. On May 20, NVIDIA reported first-quarter revenue of $81.6 billion, up 85% from a year earlier.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All NVDA signals