Track record · closed signal

Boyd Gaming Corporation (BYD) — closed signal from July 28, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 26, 2025 — -8.1% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

BYD price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$85.58 Published $98.00 Target $78.60 Window close $88.30 Peak
$81.31 – $83.29Entry zone — fair-value band
$85.58Published — price the day we called it
$98.00Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$88.30Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$78.60Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 21% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
-8.1%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+3.2%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+6.6%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$78.60
last close inside the window, ended October 26, 2025
Peak price
$88.30
peak on October 2, 2025 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published July 28, 2025

Predicted growth
+15%
over the measurement window
Target price
$98.00
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$81.31 – $83.29
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$85.58
published July 28, 2025
Confidence
75%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Boyd earned more per share than expected and plans to sell its FanDuel stake for about $1.8 billion on Jul 25. The cash will cut debt and fund stock buybacks. Even after recent gains, shares sit 10 % below their record and trade cheaper than rival casinos. With upbeat investor mood, the price could reach roughly $100, a 15 % climb, once the extra cash shows up.

Primary drivers

  • Last quarter profits beat forecasts, showing steady demand at Boyd casinos.
  • Selling the FanDuel stake for $1.8 billion will lower debt and finance more buybacks.
  • Strong investor mood and a higher recent average price hint big funds are still buying.
  • Stock is cheaper than rivals on profit multiples, may rise once debt falls.

How it played out

BYD: the thesis did not reach its target

Lyra published BYD at $85.58 on 2025-07-28. The thesis expected 15% growth and a move to $98. It pointed to stronger-than-expected per-share profits, a planned FanDuel stake sale for about $1.8 billion, lower debt, more buybacks, investor demand, and cheaper profit multiples than rivals.

Inside the window, BYD peaked at $88.3 on 2025-10-02, a 3.2% gain. It never reached $98. By 2025-10-26, it ended at $78.6. The direction was briefly positive, but the published target missed.

What happened during the window

On September 24, 2025, TechRadar reported that Boyd had confirmed a cybersecurity incident in an SEC filing. The report said Boyd found no impact on its properties or business operations.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Share this receipt

A scored call, published before the outcome was known. Paste the link anywhere — it unfurls as the card above.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All BYD signals