Track record · closed signal

Matador Resources Company (MTDR) — closed signal from April 13, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on July 12, 2026 — -16.4% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

MTDR price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$60.00 – $63.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$61.49Published — price the day we called it

$67.02Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$63.88Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$51.38Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 43% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-16.4%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+3.9%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+10.3%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$51.38

last close inside the window, ended July 12, 2026

Peak price

$63.88

peak on May 4, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published April 13, 2026

Predicted growth

+9%

over the measurement window

Target price

$67.02

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$60.00 – $63.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$61.49

published April 13, 2026

Confidence

62%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Matador looks like a short-term trade tied to higher oil prices and improving forecast talk. Recent oil gains and an analyst upgrade help interest, but the company has more debt risk and weaker recent performance than a better energy pick. The idea needs oil to stay strong over the next few months to work as expected.

Primary drivers

Higher oil prices lift investor interest in the near term
Analyst upgrades increase attention and positive estimates
Direct oil exposure can push the stock higher if crude stays firm
Debt levels and uneven operations limit conviction

How it played out

MTDR: the thesis missed its target

Lyra published MTDR at $61.49 on April 13, 2026, with 9% expected growth over the short-term window. The thesis pointed to higher oil prices, analyst upgrades, and direct oil exposure as possible support. It also cited debt levels and uneven operations as limits on conviction.

The stock peaked at $63.88 on May 4, a gain of 3.9%. It stayed below the $67.02 target throughout the window. By July 12, it had fallen to $51.38, below both the publication price and entry zone. The thesis did not play out.

What happened during the window

On May 6, Matador reported first-quarter results and raised its full-year 2026 oil and total production guidance. On June 29, its San Mateo joint venture announced an agreement to acquire Cardinal Midstream's operating subsidiaries.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All MTDR signals