Track record · closed signal

Matador Resources Company (MTDR) — closed signal from April 13, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on July 12, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

MTDR price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$61.49 Published $67.02 Target $51.38 Window close $63.88 Peak
$60.00 – $63.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$61.49Published — price the day we called it
$67.02Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$63.88Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$51.38Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 43% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$63.88
peak on May 4, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+3.9%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$51.38
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
April 13, 2026 – July 12, 2026

The thesis — published April 13, 2026

Predicted growth
+9%
over the measurement window
Target price
$67.02
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$60.00 – $63.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$61.49
published April 13, 2026
Confidence
62%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Matador looks like a short-term trade tied to higher oil prices and improving forecast talk. Recent oil gains and an analyst upgrade help interest, but the company has more debt risk and weaker recent performance than a better energy pick. The idea needs oil to stay strong over the next few months to work as expected.

Primary drivers

  • Higher oil prices lift investor interest in the near term
  • Analyst upgrades increase attention and positive estimates
  • Direct oil exposure can push the stock higher if crude stays firm
  • Debt levels and uneven operations limit conviction

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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