Track record · closed signal

Oracle Corporation (ORCL) — closed signal from April 13, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on July 12, 2026 — -1.3% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

ORCL price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$142.53 Published $167.61 Target $140.64 Window close $249.38 Peak
$139.03 – $144.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$142.53Published — price the day we called it
$167.61Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$249.38Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$140.64Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 1 day.

At window close
-1.3%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+75%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+10.3%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$140.64
last close inside the window, ended July 12, 2026
Peak price
$249.38
peak on June 1, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
1

The thesis — published April 13, 2026

Predicted growth
+18%
over the measurement window
Target price
$167.61
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$139.03 – $144.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$142.53
published April 13, 2026
Confidence
84%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Oracle shows real business momentum: a growing, visible backlog of cloud contracts and practical AI projects in utilities and customer tools. That makes near-term revenue easier to see versus names that rely only on hype. Shares pulling back toward support reduces short-term risk compared with many AI-related software stocks.

Primary drivers

  • A large backlog of cloud contracts makes near-term sales easier to predict
  • Real AI projects in utilities and customer tools show practical demand
  • Ongoing strength in core software and cloud infrastructure trends
  • Recent pullback toward support lowers short-term risk compared with peers

How it played out

ORCL: target reached in 1 day

Lyra published ORCL at $142.53 with an expected gain of 18% and a $167.61 target. The thesis pointed to a large cloud-contract backlog, practical artificial intelligence projects, strength in core software and cloud infrastructure, and a recent pullback toward support.

The target was reached in 1 day. ORCL later peaked at $249.38 on June 1, a gain of 75%. It ended the window at $140.64, below both the target and publication price. The thesis played out within the stated window, though the gain did not hold through the end.

What happened during the window

On June 10, 2026, Oracle reported quarterly revenue of $19.2 billion, up 21%, and cloud revenue of $9.9 billion, up 47%. It also reported remaining performance obligations of $638 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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