Track record · closed signal

Frontline Ltd (FRO) — closed signal from April 13, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on July 12, 2026 — +14.2% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

FRO price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$31.22 – $33.06Entry zone — fair-value band

$33.39Published — price the day we called it

$36.48Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$43.10Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$38.13Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 38 days.

At window close

+14.2%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+29.1%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+10.3%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$38.13

last close inside the window, ended July 12, 2026

Peak price

$43.10

peak on June 24, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published April 13, 2026

Predicted growth

+14%

over the measurement window

Target price

$36.48

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$31.22 – $33.06

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$33.39

published April 13, 2026

Confidence

72%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Recent problems around traffic through the Strait of Hormuz have raised demand for tankers and reduced how many ships are available. That helps a company that sells cargo on spot markets because it can earn more quickly. The shares have pulled back into a calmer range, but the idea is risky: debt is high and the benefit depends on geopolitical pressure lasting this quarter.

Primary drivers

Hormuz disruptions raise tanker demand and push rates higher
Selling on the spot market turns higher rates into quicker earnings
Price pullback created a more disciplined entry range
High debt and event dependence make the trade riskier

How it played out

FRO: target reached in 38 days

Lyra published a short-term thesis for a 14% rise, with a target of 36.48 from a publication price of 33.39. The thesis pointed to Strait of Hormuz disruptions, stronger tanker demand and spot-market exposure. It also cited the price pullback as an entry opportunity, while noting high debt and dependence on continued geopolitical pressure.

The shares reached the target in 38 days. They later peaked at 43.10 on June 24, a 29.1% gain, and ended the window at 38.13. The peak was above the target, and the closing price remained above it. The thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On May 22, 2026, Frontline reported first-quarter profit of $559.1 million and declared a cash dividend of $1.55 per share.

FRO: First Quarter 2026 Results

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All FRO signals